[bjoernw]

The real problem limiting supply isn't the manufacturing, it's the supply chain. We now have factories optimized to produce vaccines as fast as the supply chain allows. If we start messing with the supply chains and divert inputs to factories not at the same optimization level then overall output could actually fall.

[munk-a]

I'm pretty sure this is legitimately a "the market will fix it" problem. If a manufacturer isn't able to efficiently use supply this will likely result in some spoilage and backlogging - that will lower the effective price that manufacturer will be willing to pay (since buying extra stock just to have it expire is a waste) and allow the more efficient manufacturers to continue to consume necessary supplies at an efficient rate. Additionally, any added sustainable demand will result in an increase in profitability in the supply chain before that point - so existing manufacturers will be encouraged to expand and some new manufacturers may enter the field.

We might see a short term dip but I don't think that additional inefficient factories would lead to less overall production unless there was something weird going on like government mandates to supply inefficient manufacturers.

[bjoernw]

Is it worth optimizing for future output when the life-saving metric during a global pandemic is time-to-first-dose? There are only a few factories in the world that can make something as complex as an mRNA vaccine. There is literally a shortage in glass beakers and shipping lanes are backlogged. These supply chains are very fragile and helping stabilize those would do more for vaccine supply than what's being proposed here.

[munk-a]

I would agree if I thought this would create a significant market disturbance - but I would assume the impact of a few more competing vax manufacturers will be extremely minor.