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by netcan 1705 days ago
This is a good point but... Innovation without disruption tends to get underlooked, being less dramatic.

Think of the old auto companies over the years. They start off making tractor-like cars. They survive through the cars-as-fashion eras, the internationalisation of manufacturing, etc. If old auto companies emerging from the 80s were new, we'd call it disruptive innovation.

That said, both disruption and innovator's dilemma are real.

The innovator dilemmas also roughly corresponds to stuff early economists wrote about. Peak markets. Markets are great as they grow. When they reach their terminal size (eg most people already own cars), profits go down, stagnation can occur. That stagnation, especially if the market declines in size, leads to crashes and new paradigms eventually emerge. Marxists sometimes take this to a systemic extreme, with "peak capitalism" and derivative concepts. On the conservative side, you'll find these ideas at the heart of austrian business cycle theories and Schumpeter's "creative destruction."

The digital economy is cushioned by tremendous potential for growth, so far. FB, for example, knows that it's not cool anymore. They can just buy whoever is cool.

2 comments

Slight historical note: most Japanese auto manufacturers started off making motorized bicycles and small utility vehicles, then pivoted up into retail cars.
That reminds me of music industry and the constant buying of smaller labels. Owning distribution is the key and facebook has a massive platform for that.