[jcranmer]

> Look at El Salvador: in 6 weeks since officially adopting Bitcoin as a currency (next to the US dollar, not replacing it mind you) the number of people that now have "wallet" software running on their phone is already lager then the number of people who over the past 20 years were able to open a bank account.

A few things.

First off, a "wallet" is really a bank account, albeit one at a shadow bank (i.e., unregulated bank). In the case of the Chivo wallet, I think I read somewhere that it's actually storing the USD not as USD but as Tethers. I don't have independent verification of that off-hand, though.

Secondly, the numbers of users are being quoted by Bukele, without independent verification. I have some skepticism of the veracity. Although I will note that the Google Play Store indicates "1,000,000+" downloads. Opening a Chivo wallet came with a $30 giveaway, which gives a motivation to open one up just to claim a pretty sizeable prize--and also a motivation for scammers to do it for you, hoping you won't notice.

Thirdly, there's evidence that it's being little used. More recently, they "negotiated" with the largest gas stations to give a 20¢/gal discount--suggesting that use without promotional offerings is poor. And 93% of businesses report not having anyone attempt to use it.

Overall, this suggests that the adoption of Bitcoin hasn't been a wildly positive success.

[elvatoloco55]

Exactly. When Visa and Mastercard started millions started using it and almost 93% of businesses started accepting cards in the first months.

Nobody uses Bitcoin, only 1 small country

[skybrian]

I’m doubtful that credit cards were as quickly successful as you imply. It takes time for consumer behavior to change. I couldn’t find a good link, but I vaguely remember a story about how BankAmerica had trouble at first after the Fresno drop?

The people claiming instant success in El Salvador are getting fooled by misleading numbers, but it’s at least plausible that this heavy promotion will eventually pay off there.

[futevolei]

I get this and think this is most likely scenario as well but at the same time this is equivalent to just getting your app started on the box and loading data or something correctly. It’s a step and you’re happy. These bitcoin guys just got their app to start up with limited functionality. They are happy.