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by landa 1708 days ago
I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Natural gas prices are higher than I've ever seen them, only comparable to one very cold winter year. This is not just a return to pre-Covid prices, this is due to government policy. Same with crude oil prices. Just look at the five year chart for NG1:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM
1 comments
ceejayoz 1708 days ago
Zoom the chart out a bit more (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/ng.1). 2009 and 2014 see higher prices than we're at now.
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landa 1708 days ago
This is because of the shale revolution, so you can't go back that far. They're different eras. As for 2014, it was because of the polar vortex. The current high prices are in the summer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2014_North_American_cold...

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ceejayoz 1708 days ago
"Highest in five years" didn't have quite the doomsday ring to it, eh?

There's a lot of idle capacity ready to go right now, but the energy companies are enjoying the higher prices. https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/natural-gas-price...

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landa 1708 days ago
Five years is not the only thing -- it's also summer prices, whereas the other peaks were during very cold winters. Natural gas is very very seasonal, so winter gas and summer gas are different commodities almost.

Production is higher than ever before. Anyone can write any article that they wish. The only public data available right now from the EIA is a little lagged, but keep an eye on the September number when it is available.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2M.htm

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bumby 1708 days ago
As you say, much of the low gas prices that have occurred in recent memory is due to fracking. Those of us who are a bit older remember when natural gas used to be much higher than we're currently seeing, even before adjusting for inflation.

The energy companies used to also ramp up production in areas like the Permian Basin as soon as oil/gas reached certain thresholds. They are generally being much more disciplined right now because of uncertainty about the pandemic. From that perspective, the prices are more indicative of the "post-pandemic" economic recovery than inflation. If there was less uncertainty about the pandemic recovery, they would be more likely to invest in additional drilling and the price would come down from current levels. They just don't want to be caught ramping up production while seeing a simultaneous pandemic-driven downturn in demand.

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whimsicalism 1708 days ago
Ah well, as for 2021, it was because of the ongoing global pandemic.
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