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by woodruffw 1710 days ago
> I bet there are dozens if not hundreds more like him.

To be clear: betting like this is baseless speculation. I'm telling you from lived experience that it just isn't that common here, especially when you factor in how dense and populous NYC is compared to SF.

And it's probably not the case that he's "singled out" in any way (other than for reporting by the NYP). He's the "spiders Georg"[1] of shoplifting. There's always one!

[1]: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/spiders-georg

1 comments

> To be clear: betting like this is baseless speculation.

It is speculation, but it is not baseless. I base my speculation on a foundation of N=1, which may not be very firm but is not baseless.

Just now though, I clicked through to that nypost article and found this:

> There are 77 other thieves right now walking the streets of New York with rap sheets of 20 or more shoplifting charges, NYPD sources say.

77 is a bit more than 6 dozen, so I feel vindicated. My speculation was accurate.

I think I'd feel comfortably vindicated with a number about an order of magnitude higher :-)

Seriously: NYC is big. 77 kleptomaniacs in a city of 8.4 million people? Not bad! Per capita, we're one of the safest (and lowest-crime) cities in the country[1].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

It's not the number of kleptos that is the matter of concern. What concerns me is the police/prosecutors/courts allowing these kleptos to run free. That it has happened 77 times shows that it wasn't just one guy somehow slipping through the system as a fluke. The kleptos are mere bellwethers for the systemic sickness in law enforcement.