[thefringthing]

It's true that Taiwan's official position no longer reflects either reality or the desires of its people.

I think it would be ideal of Taiwan could be come de jure independent and sovereign, but that would essentially require some deal between China and the USA which is certainly not forthcoming.

[Jon_Lowtek]

The moment Taiwan officially drops their claims and declares Taiwanese Independence, China will attack.

[thefringthing]

Right. China's position is that a declaration of independence from Taiwan constitutes an act of war against China by what is essentially a US/NATO proxy. So the US/NATO would have to trade something to China for Taiwan and it's not clear to me that they have anything to offer that matters to China.

[rsj_hn]

> China's position is that a declaration of independence from Taiwan constitutes an act of war against China by what is essentially a US/NATO proxy

Right, and one could also say that America's position is that China isn't allowed to invade Taiwan, so I guess if China wanted to do that, it would need to trade something of value to America to let it happen, and I'm not sure China has anything to trade that matters to America. This is the US-Sino agreement -- China isn't allowed to invade, the US isn't allowed to recognize independence. The situation can only be settled with diplomacy. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-China_policy for more information about this agreement -- which both the US and China signed.

So you see, China can't really prevent the US from recognizing an Independent Taiwan, but neither can the US prevent China from attacking Taiwan. Both of these balance. China can sabre rattle, sort go up to but not actually invade, just as the US can go up to but not actually recognize Taiwanese independence. For example China can violate Taiwanese airspace but then leave without shooting at anyone. And the US can open an "office" in Taiwan that isn't quite an embassy but does some consular work. And perhaps an American official might visit that office and shake a few hands.

It's a weird tit-for-tat.

This is the game that is being played. The US is betting that it has time on its side. With each year that passes, the Taiwanese consider themselves more independent in their own consciousness. China is betting on rapidly becoming so rich and such a pleasant place to live that the Taiwanese will want to reunify in order to enjoy the Blessings of Beijing. Everything else is either play-acting or dangerous stupidity. Because I think Xi is a smart guy, I think he is play-acting and for a domestic audience. Whenever there is some problem like electricity blackouts, or some corruption scandal, Xi does some provocation against Taiwan and people fall behind him ready to avenge Chinese honor. But I know there is a non-zero chance that I could be wrong, and perhaps Xi really means it. That would be disastrous for all sides.

So international disputes are not really settled by one side having a position only, there are multiple sides, each needing to compromise on their position. Being rigid often ends up backfiring, particularly for a nation locked into the dollar system and one that isn't food or energy independent.