[labawi]

To put the calculation in perspective.

What you have calculated:

(using 4 deaths at 1e-6 odds, because it's simpler and still gives 10x better odds at 1e-24)

Taking 4 death row inmates, jabbing them with AstraZeneca and expecting all 4 of them to die.

What you have not calculated:

Jabbing 1e9 people, 10k of them developing serious issues (expected prior) and there being a multi-hop connection between 5 of them. Two of them actually being brothers (familial clustering), and some with issues likely more prevalent so not even from the 10k group (1/1e5 cutoff).