[Apes]

I'm pro vaccine, and am convinced that the benefits of the vaccine absolutely eclipse the risks, but your math is so horrendously wrong here. Delete this.

Edit, here's some corrections:

This isn't 5 people in a row who had issues, it's 5 people within 4 nodes of distance in their social network. 4 nodes of distance is a lot of people, probably around 200,000 - 2,000,000.

The odds of having severe complications from the vaccine are about 1 in 100,000.

Therefore, everyone should expect to have 2-20 people within 4 nodes of their social network to have severe complications from the vaccine.

The mistake is not realizing the absolutely massive amount of people within 4 nodes of distance in your social network.

The other massive issue I see here is that there should also be somewhere around 500 covid deaths in the same pool of people that produced these 5 people with vaccine complications. The fact that they are focused on the 5 and not the 500 speaks heavily to their biases.

Keep in mind, all of this also assumes that what they're saying is 100% accurate, and these complications were definitely caused by the vaccine, and were not a coincidence. In truth, for every 1 person that has complications with the vaccine, 10-100x had the unlucky coincidence of something bad occurring that would have happened even if they hadn't gotten the vaccine.

[lossolo]

> probably around 200,000 - 2,000,000

There are around 200 strokes per 100 000 people per year [1].

And number of "heart issues" is even more, only deaths because of heart issues are around ~170 per 100k people per year.

Correlation is not causation.

[1] https://www.world-stroke.org/assets/downloads/WSO_Global_Str...

[bayesian_horse]

The numbers are probably even less favorable since the vaccinations have been skewed to the older population for much of the time.

[sethammons]

> The fact that they are focused on the 5 and not the 500 speaks heavily to their biases.

Same guy as before. I know of two people who temporarily lost taste and I heard of one person who died from COVID, a coworker's uncle.

You can rationalize this however you like, but these are the cases I'm aware of.

[cupofcoffee]

You are wrong about what is meant by a "social circle". They are people that he socializes with.

Definition of social circle is "A social circle is a group of socially interconnected people". I doubt anyone would complain about having a small social circle if it contained 2M people. :)

[Apes]

No.

> My daughter's bf's friends mom

[cupofcoffee]

They said: "I don't have a large social circle." You need to read context a bit more carefully.

[Apes]

Sure, he said that, but only one of the complications are actually IN his social circle, the rest are two or more steps removed.

"My dad's coworker" - 2 steps

"my wife's brothers" - 2 steps

"My daughter's bf's friends mom" - 4 steps

"A friend" - 1 step

He might have a small social circle, but even a small circle is going to explode exponentially when you start hoping outwards. By the 4th jump, you're going to start seeing extreme numbers regardless of how small your personal social circle is.

[cupofcoffee]

I stand corrected. Now it makes sense that only 1 side-effect in his circle.

Thanks.