Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by amin 1717 days ago
The payoffs in FX trades do not come from "new investment money", so it fails an important Ponzi scheme criteria.

Having said that, speculating on FX is a zero-sum game, which I'm not generally in favor of.

2 comments

Well, insurance industry is a negative sum game (zero sum minus costs of running it) in which all the buyers expect to lose money and all the sellers make it. Still, it's a good idea to buy insurance in some circumstances as utility of money curve is different different for the insurance buyer and insurance company. Such transactions are good for both sides (as they maximize their utility even though the buyer losses in pure money terms).

Now apply that to Forex. There are players who needs to hedge against target currency devaluing and others who are willing to take the risk premium. That you can gamble on it if another matter but then again, you can gamble on many different otherwise useful financial instruments.

There is intrinsic value to being insured, even if one doesn't end up making a claim, the peace of mind is gives is a rendered benefit.
It totally does? USD appreciates when people want to hold USD more, i.e. when new investment money is flowing into USD.