[makomk]

Not using just in time manufacturing might help with short-term disruptions, but we're approaching the two year point on the pandemic and the associated global disruptions and it's just not realistic to keep enough stock in for that long. The current generation of stuff like CPUs and GPUs hasn't even been released and in production for that long...

[kennywinker]

My understanding is that the 1st order disruption is long-over. The factories and ports are all back online, etc. two years out all that’s left is the ripple effects of the original ~6 month disturbance. It’s just that those ripples are amplified by the way the supply chain operates (just in time).

[brewdad]

So we are at the hoarding toilet paper stage of the crisis? Everyone is ordering as much as they can, so effectively no one actually gets their order filled.

[makomk]

The first-order disruption definitely isn't long over - important manufacturing locations like Vietnam and Malaysia were in lockdown until as recently a week or two ago, and I don't think things are back to operating normally there yet Parts of China might still actually be under lockdown right now.

[kennywinker]

Is lockdown really effecting manufacturing in those places? Because when we had "lockdown" where I live that meant no fun, not no work - but of course everywhere has done it differently

[ren_engineer]

bullwhip effect, this stuff has been known for decades. Our entire global economy depends on ideal conditions to function properly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

[ericbarrett]

I agree, but if a manufacturer has the means (physical and budgetary) to store a significant supply of components, they can order larger quantities with longer lead times, so they would still be more resilient in extended shortage situations.

[genericone]

Extended shortage situations account for fires/earthquakes/tsunamis/singularities, short events with long-term but predictable downstream effects. Extended shortage planning doesn't account for 2 year-long political-struggles, which requires something more like war-time planning, spending, and the inevitable waste from stockpiling.

[vkou]

This is great for that particular supplier, but an order for a larger quantity will just squeeze the inventory of every other supplier even more.

The problem is that we are trying to squeeze blood out of a rock. Demand exceeds supply, and it takes years to scale supply up. It doesn't matter if we are using JIT or not, the suppliers for the bottlenecks have all been working at 100% since essentially the start of the pandemic.

[dwild]

Well to be fair, it's not 2 years of stock that would be needed, as there was still some production that was happening during theses 2 years.