[ThrowawayR2]

Some of these responses are really silly. What actually happens is:

- TSMC's foundries stop operating soon because they're not getting new equipment, replacement parts, or supplies to operate the foundry from ASML or anyone else in the West, thanks to the inevitable embargo/sanctions that would follow. Even if the fabs were supplied and operating, nobody would dare send their designs to them to be fabbed anyway.

- TSMC's senior research and engineering staff are either evacuated or, if captured, are less productive than before.

- TSMC's shareholders (you know, the people who actually own the company) work out intellectual property licenses to Samsung and Intel, who are not that far behind TSMC in fab prowess, to raise capital to complete their own fabs in the West.

- Availability of consumer electronics gets extremely tight for several years then life goes on.

[rasz]

>extremely tight for several years then life goes on

Strange way of saying "$2 Trillion Apple goes bankrupt because no chips means no product to sell".

[lmilcin]

Pretty sure Apple would still be there.

Remember, it is not just Apple that would be hit. All their competition would also. And out of all companies that produce phones Apple has probably most cash on hand. They have something like 200B USD in cash.

Also Apple is in best position to be first in line to by chips at a premium outside Taiwan as their products are already expensive and high margin. And even if that doesn't work, they are in best position to just set up their own production. This would take couple of years but would set them to kill all their competition for foreseeable future so I am pretty sure they would look it as fabulous investment.

Look at latest iPhone teardowns. There is just couple of chips in it, and already designed by Apple.

The only other company I can think of is Samsung, that sits on a pile of cash half the size of Apple's. But while Samsung is well diversified, basically all their lines of business rely on chips, too. While Apple does not need a lot of different types of chips, Samsung probably relies on so many that they would not be able to replicate all of them.

[rasz]

Apple is a good singular example with huge market cap. You are right, its not just Apple - all huge non Chinese/Korean car makers would be sol for couple of years, cant even retool to less electronics due to EPA/Euro standards.

Samsung owns cutting edge fabs and is pretty self reliant. China has SMIC.

[slimebot]

Maybe this underestimates the complexity in setting up these facilities, the time required, and the skills involved.

[cyanydeez]

easier to just strand a few chinese cargo ships in a few canals