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by rpadovani 1716 days ago
Well, what's the baseline?

I'm all in for a way to reduce any accident.

1 comments

But there's a choice involved. Reduce baseline accidents, but increase being exposed to completely random events that will kill you.

Nope. I won't be part of that statistic.

We make those choices all the time.

Taking a plane instead of driving is similar. You lose direct control, but it's orders of magnitude safer.

I'll take a 0.001% chance of death over a 0.1% chance every time.

I'll take 0.1% chance of death which I (arguably) can control, over a 0.001% chance of death which I absolutely cannot control at all.

It's so clear to me. Yes, taking a plane is similar, but I only take that risk a couple of times a year.

The 0.1% (to me) is a probability number as I have some control over each event. The probability is so low that it likely never will happen.

The 0.001% number is an eventual outcome number. "Run the experiment X amount of times, and death will happen 0.001% of the time". And it's more relevant than flying as we drive so much more.

Nope! Thanks!

That's not how statistic works
Anytime you get on the road you are exposing yourself to the possibility that a suicidal or drunk or elderly person with dementia will kill you.

Personally, I would like to have very rigorous driving tests for old people and remove licenses for people with DUIs. The obvious question then is, how are old people and drunks supposed to get around. Self driving cars seem like an option eventually. It makes you safer compared to the alternative, which is we generally wait until someone is killed before we permanently remove someone's license.

I have some chance of controlling the outcome of the suicidal/drunk/elderly driver situation.

I have no chance of controlling a buggy AI.

I like my chances better :-)

I wonder how many people say this whose personal driving habits make them much higher risk than the baseline.
Regardless.

Nothing short of 100% reliability will convince me that handing over control to a closed-box AI is better.

And even then, one small "bug" could change that conclusion. It just takes one weird, anomoly in the real world to mess things up. And maybe handling those things will eventually be perfected*. Maybe. But I don't intend to be the beta tester for that.

*I know the default is to hand control back to the driver, but then you may as well be driving (which I enjoy). "Shut up and drive" is far more fun than being your cars KPI manager.