[deliberateJack]

We know the rules of physics and math. We can make predictions using those rules and express them as well defined terms. Physics and math are not a black box.

The inputs of "the economy" are not even well defined. We measure SOME of the inputs and cannot predict the outputs like recession. Sounds like the economy is a black box.

[JumpCrisscross]

> We know the rules of physics and math. We can make predictions using those rules and express them as well defined terms. Physics and math are not a black box.

We can make a good deal of economic predictions that validate. Predicting recessions is in a similar class of problem as predicting the weather. We understand, in broad terms, the system-level dynamics. But we don't get it at the granular level, and that granular level sometimes manifests systemically in a chaotic way.