[credit_guy]

If I were a VC, Boom wold be the easiest investment decision ever.

Here's the 3 questions I'd ask myself: 1. can they make it? 2. can they sell it? 3. if they make it and they sell it, could others copycat them, then out-execute and take the prize away from them?

The easiest to answer is 3. Out of all the unicorn startups of the last 2 decades, this one is the by far the one with the highest barriers of entry for the competition. The only ones coming close are SpaceX and Tesla. Why? Let's say Boom makes the first sale in 2025. If anyone wants to enter the market, they won't have a product for at least 10 years, and Boom can already be at jet 2.0 by that time, well into the R&D cycle for 3.0.

The first question: can they make it? Concorde was introduced in "prod" 45 years ago, but had the first flight 7 years prior. Technology has made huge advances in half a century. Obviously computers in general, and computational fluid dynamics in particular are many, many orders of magnitude above what was available in the mid-60's. But other things experienced impressive progress as well: theoretical CFD, materials, manufacturing to name just a few. Jet engines are also much more efficient, and what's super-important: Boom need to just buy them form some suppliers, they don't need to invent them as was the case with Concorde. There are basically only 3 suppliers out there (General Electric, Pratt&Whitney and Rolls Royce), but their competition is fierce, which means the engines are both extreme quality and reasonable price.

Finally, if they make it, will they sell it? Yes, the market for business jets can't wait for a supersonic jet, no matter what price level. A Gulfstream G700 comes at $75MM, and it goes without saying that it is subsonic. Think of all those billionaires who spend hundreds of millions on luxury yachts. A supersonic private jet would be the most exalted form of conspicuous consumption. Do you gather Abramovich will sign up for one?

Concorde could not target this market segment, since it was made with government money. But a VC-backed startup most surely can.

[missedthecue]

G700 has long legs. It can fly from New York to Hong Kong without a stop. Plus, it doesn't have to reduce it's speed when flying over land.

A Boom aircraft would presumably only be able to use it's selling point on routes over open water. That completely shuts out almost all of the Asia market - it's range isn't great enough to make it from Asia to the US, and most other routes Asians fly mainly cross land.

The only buyers would be American east coast billionaires that go to Europe often and European billionaires that come to the US often. Are there enough of these?

[odonnellryan]

Unsure how feasible it is, but Boom does expect to have cross pacific flights as well as flights over land due to various improvements to the tech.

[panick21]

Their sub-scale prototype was claimed to be ready in 2019 at one point. And as far as I know its still has not flown.

So as for the 'can they make it', I am very skeptical. Even assuming they can make it, can they make enough of them fast enough to actually be a return on investment.

Even assuming that, is the market large in-enough that a real manufacturing line is going to be possible?

Could the company exist maybe, will it be widely profitable, questionable.

In my opinion the coming revolution in Electric airplanes is going to be 100x more disruptive and with a much larger importunity for profit.

I don't think Musk competencies (Tesla, SpaceX) have any interest in Supersonic Jet engines. Musk himself has often talked about wanting to build a Supersonic Electric Jet for shorter domestic route. Something that could really fundamentally change the industry.

The competition for Boom from that direction is actually rocket power transport in the form of Starship.

[eaenki]

Rocket power transport it’s nonsense once you consider how much time the on boarding and outboarding is

[fragmede]

There are some technical details to work out, but 1 hour to anywhere in the world is feasible with a ballistic missile, and impossible to beat with a supersonic aircraft. Whether those details can be ironed out to provide it commerically remains to be seen, but ballistic missile technology was proven in the 1970s. The ridiculous part isn't because of how long it takes to get on and off a spaceship. Even if it took 3 hours to get on and three more to get off, 7 hours would still beat 17 hours in a plane going Sydney to London.

[LargoLasskhyfv]

But would it be comfortable?

edit: I meant 7 hours of which experience exactly compared to 17 hours of whatever class at whatever price per flight?

[panick21]

Well you have to get into planes or rockets, so that time is likely not that different. If its not worth it for rockets, its not worth it for supersonic flights either.

[davidjytang]

You seemed to have given positive answers to those 3 question yourself. It seems that Boom just had to pick the right topic.

Theranos undoubtedly convinced VC all 3 questions. I wonder how much VC had brought that onto themselves.