[tunesmith]

I have trouble visualizing that, but if that's true it's just more reason to do whatever we can to get local Rt < 1. Vaccines get us partway there, other mitigation efforts like mask use, distancing (and natural immunity) get us partway there as well.

I'm personally vaccinated and not very worried about getting the disease if I have to be out and about. I feel my personal risk is low. But in terms of societal/community risk to others, that's why I have a personal policy of limiting myself socially so I don't contribute to spread.

The local metrics I personally follow are:

1) Is Rt above 1?

2) Are cases/100k above 10?

3) Is test positivity above 5%?

4) Is ICU usage above 85%

If any of those are on the wrong side, I'm limiting my social gatherings.