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by jjwiseman 1727 days ago
From reading comments, it seems like a lot of people don't understand that Delta changed things.

In a world without Delta, the vaccines did do an incredible job of actually preventing infection. "Effectiveness [against confirmed infection] remained above 95% regardless of age group, sex, race, or presence of comorbidities."[1] But that study used data up to March 2021, which means mostly non-Delta variants. Against Delta, vaccine effectiveness in preventing infection might be closer to 50%+ (e.g. [2]) -- which is still very effective! It's just not effective as we would like. "Hi, here's a shot that cuts your odds of getting infected in half. Do you want it?" Um, yes please.

You have to change your behavior when the facts in the world change. The messaging had to change with the facts. Of course you can't use the old vaccination thresholds for re-opening if the virus is now infecting 10x (50% vs. 95%) as many vaccinated people as it was 2 months ago, that doesn't make sense.

The virus moved the goalposts. You can be angry about that, but that's reality.

We are so lucky that despite everything, the vaccines are still incredibly effective at keeping you from dying if you get COVID. I'm actually very angry at how the mask messaging was handled (there should absolutely be consequences for that), but it doesn't matter how angry I am, if I don't get vaccinated I am irrationally refusing the single best way to avoid dying in this pandemic.

[1] https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-1577 [2] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e4.htm

1 comments

Delta was encouraged through the evolutionary pressure from a leaky vaccine
Bullshit. It came from India, and the unchecked spread of the virus through the largely unvaccinated population.

Evolutionary pressure is exerted by all immune responses, not just ones conditioned by vaccines.

> Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. [1]

The covid vaccine is just that - limits symptoms but still allows transmission.

> In an unvaccinated population, mutations occur at random producing a wide genetic spread with very few progeny resulting in long lasting lineages (Muller's ratchet), with a selection pressure that favors those variants that can (a) win the competition of replication among its cousins within a host, and (b) not kill the host so that it can thrive in new hosts.

> In a highly vaccinated population, mutations occur at random, but the genetic spread among versions of the virus is narrowed to those that can evade immunity, which has now been made more uniform among the vaccinated population. This further encourages such lineages even when they would not have won out within individual hosts in competition among its cousins. Such evasion increases chances of reinfection. [2]

[1] https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.13...

[2] https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/variant-roulette-evo...