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by anthony_r 1723 days ago
Win % is a really useless metric in this business, try computing win % for something like long vol strategies (for example things like what Taleb did back in the day), it might come out to 5% or lower and still make money. And because every trade has a counterparty there's plenty of strategies that win 95% or more of the time but eventually lead to ruin. Returns pretty much never have a symmetric distribution.

Computing win % is akin to measuring software quality in terms of number of lines of code - only someone who has no first-hand experience would ever attempt to do that.

1 comments

Yeah - Martingale strategy is a good example of high win % strategy that doesn't work (unless you have infinite money)