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by markmarknewyork
5428 days ago
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According to the calculation by Hao Li in 2006 (should be at MSU that time) (see Hao Li's article at http://www.jofamericanscience.org/journals/am-sci/0201/06-li...): By knowing the total tickets Ntt each time, Pjh can be estimated easily:
Pjh=1-(1-P6) Ntt
Lottery P6 is the probability of matching 6 numbers. In the case of the WINFall lottery, P6=1/13,983,816.
The total tickets Ntt each time can be estimated by its samples and their probabilities. The WINFall lottery has 4 samples, matching 6 numbers N6, matching 5 N5, matching 4 N4 and matching 3 N3 respectively. N3 is the largest sample of the WINFall lottery. As far as we have four samples in hand: N6 N5 N4 and N3, we use N3 to calculate the total tickets. Because the more sample are there, the small differences we have (Statistics Accuracy). The Ntt is:
Ntt=N3/P3
P3 is the probability of matching 3 numbers. In the case of lottery WINFall, P3=1/57. To win is really practical. However, government should make more money than buyers even following the abave rule. |
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