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by polm23 1725 days ago
> When a computer can accurately predict (90%~) sexuality

Oh you mean the thing where it still "works" with faces blurred out because it's not picking up face shape?

https://www.theregister.com/2019/03/05/ai_gaydar/

> criminal proclivity

You mean the smile detector?

https://www.callingbullshit.org/case_studies/case_study_crim...

This stuff is bullshit and it can't work. The idea that it could work is magical thinking with no basis in reality.

1 comments

Of course it could work. How do you know there is no signal there? Whether it does or not is an open question in my mind.
Because it would be the equivalent of a natural built-in evil bit and an extremely bizarre thing - for the same reason that the evil bit is unlikely to be used.

Any system that claims to work on that sort of input is almost certainly picking up socio-economic status of different races, or something similar, with no causal predictive power.

You are saying that there is no genetic component to personality? That's dumb. Are you saying there is no genetic component to facial features? Also dumb. Are you saying that there is no crossover whatsoever between the genetics that govern facial features and personality? Also dumb. There will be crossover above 0, it would extraordinary if there were 0 crossover. So there is likely some small correlation between facial features or skull shape and personality. How big is the effect, I don't know. The problem here is that you are judging the value of a person based upon their personality, not that their personality might be bound up in some way with their genetic makeup.
You've missed an angle - the causal link between genetics and personality is completely overwhelmed by the non-causal correlation between genetics and social status.

These models aren't going to pick up the correlation between facial structure and personality, they are going to pick up which families are high status and which are low, then provide the same pseudoscientific justifications for discriminating that people have been deploying since the dawn of pseudoscience.

Basically, these models are going to mislead people into thinking that a non-causal correlation is causal.

Facial (a)symmetry is an important factor in neurological/psychiatric diagnosis.
> Any system that claims to work on that sort of input is almost certainly picking up socio-economic status of different races, or something similar, with no causal predictive power.

I wonder which will have more predictive power, the version where you let the AI do it’s thing or the version where you intervene to correct for things that are almost certainly wrong according to you.

An AI doesn't do "it's thing", it learns with the bias the researcher encoded in the model, and most importantly in this case, with the massive bias of the datasets.

Correcting is just steering a bias from one way to another.

Bias is relative to a null hypothesis, you are just begging the question. Predictive power is the final arbiter
> Predictive power is the final arbiter

But how do you measure that predictive power? Humans do have to build an evaluation set. And that evaluation set will be biased one way or the other, you cannot just pretend bias does not exist and hope for the best.

I also can't disprove the existence of unicorns, but I can cite a preponderance of the evidence.

Why is the shape of your face different than the lumps on your head? Even if you find a correlation in the data why would there be a causative relation? If I'm innocent one day but steal a loaf of bread do you expect the shape of my face to change? The idea makes no sense.

No, it won't change, but certain facial metrics may indicate proclivity.

This is statistics, so an n = 1 doesn't really help your argument.

I agree though, that physiognomic "accuracy" based on self-assessments is of little value, like most self-assessments, and not very different from tarot readings or online IQ or MBTI tests.

Now when there are external assessments, these types of correlations are to be handled carefully in social sciences, because they can be self-fulfilling prophecies (people don't trust you because you look untrustworthy, so you end up behaving the way that gets you treated that way anyway) or straight up spurious, so the independent variable(s), if any, can be extremely non-evident: nutrition, environmental, cultural... This is, again, not unlike intelligence tests.

The best hard data we have is on a less delicate subject: aggression in hockey, where certain facial features correlate with quantifiable aggressive behaviors [0].

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2570531/

> How do you know there is no signal there?

Because the shapes of portions of our bodies do not betray our moral character. It is nonsense, and debating this issue is so tiresome. I've worked in facial recognition for quite some time, and thank gawd nobody where I've worked had over-reaching opinions of our software's capabilities. For example, the "emotion recognition AI" fraudulently being marketed - we howled in laughter when those frauds appeared. However, while interviewing at other FR/ML companies, I meet a horror of over-reaching attitudes. I guess someone can work in trained algorithms and yet carry a head full of conspiracy-theory quality logical connections. That must be the case, because physical shape cannot dictate moral character, and debating the issue is Kafkaesque.

Why not?