[diiq]

I use a statistical model, where each task gets a "best case" and "worst case" estimate; those estimates are used to create a log normal distribution, and the project is simulated as the sum of those distributions plus sick days, social loafing, etc.

I use that method for all my consulting estimates, and it has been very reliable for me; no crunch time, and I often come in under time. I've also made a tool that does the math so my clients and other people can continue to use the same process without me.

[1] https://quotes.vistimo.com/

[e-_pusher]

This looks wonderful, thank you! I think statistical estimation of large projects is an overlooked area.