[YZF]

This might be counter-intuitive but this market is still growing. Random reference from a quick Googling: "NEEDHAM, Mass., June 9, 2021 – The worldwide Ethernet switch market recorded $6.7 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2021 (1Q21), an increase of 7.6% year over year. Meanwhile, the worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues grew 14.4% year over year in 1Q21 to $3.4 billion. These growth rates are according to results published in the International Data Corporation" ...

"Cisco finished 1Q21 with a year-over-year increase of 3.4% in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 49.3%. In the higher-speed segment of the Ethernet switch market (25Gb/50Gb,100Gb & 200Gb/400Gb), Cisco is the market leader with 40.9% of revenues. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue grew 18.5% year over year, with enterprise router revenue decreasing 1.3% and SP revenues increasing 33.2% year over year. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share stands at 37.6%."

A lot of cloud growth is reflected outside the cloud. Corporations still need networks even if they do some things in the cloud. There's generally just a lot more traffic all over the place.

This isn't really commodity. I work in this industry. a 400Gb switch isn't something you just build yourself or buy at your local electronics store. There is definitely competition but it's not exactly what I'd call commodification. What is true is that some of the building blocks are available...

There's definitely a range of future outcomes for this company but it's not gonna be the cloud that does it. Could be another bubble burst or major economic downturn combined with other factors (which I guess was sort of the Nortel story, though I doubt Nortel was sitting on as much cash as some of their contemporaries).