That's just the trolley problem, as other commenters have said. This whole debate is, which is a shame, because it means we're unlikely to convince each other.
This is not a trolley problem. The trolley problem has two assured outcomes - both leading to harm - and requires active intervention to choose the lower harm.
This has definitive harm for a potential gain against future potential harm, versus stopping an active harm at no direct real cost. It's a bird in hand versus two in the bush.
This has definitive harm for a potential gain against future potential harm, versus stopping an active harm at no direct real cost. It's a bird in hand versus two in the bush.
You can't use people in wagers like that.