[pfdietz]

Only a fraction of the renewable output would have to be routed through hydrogen, though. It turns out this is still cheaper than new nuclear for providing "synthetic baseload" supply, especially if one looks at projections of how much renewables should cost in the time it would take for any new nuclear plant initiated today to come online.

[p_l]

Said "fraction", for moderately modest needs and assuming just 24h window where it provides "baseload" can be as "low" as 1/3rd of total renewable capacity - assuming that renewables do 100% of peak whiel saving the excess..

Or so analysis from people I know in the industry, interested in decarbonising (not fossil lobby related), show.

[pfdietz]

Sounds about right. See https://model.energy/ for a toy model that gives about that number, when you solve the optimization problem for Germany. The optimal solutions still have some renewable curtailment, though.

[p_l]

Trying to get usable values for Warsaw area, it gives me the result that we need 8x overbuilding (curiously it suggests solar power mostly), and I'm not sure if we could decarbonize heating on that.

[pfdietz]

Poland is one of the worst places on Earth for renewables. If nuclear still has a shot, it's around there.