[jakelazaroff]

Oops, didn’t notice the first link was for New York State. The CompStat link includes longer-term trends, though, which is what I was referring to.

Crime is down overall, and I suspect that if you controlled for the murder rate increase in all US cities over the past two years it might be flat or down in NYC as well.

[alach11]

Murder rate is arguably the most useful crime metric because it's the hardest one for politicians/police to game. Changes in enforcement can change trends for assaults and property crime, but you can't really hide bodies.

[jakelazaroff]

Well, you'd have to show that murder rates correlate with rates for other crime. But more important is digging into the thorny issue of what — and who — defines "crime". Because there are a ton of aspects to it: what laws are on the books, what laws are actually enforced, what various special interest groups want to legislate, what people analyzing data choose to include.

For example, as of 2017 feeding pigeons was a misdemeanor in Las Vegas [1]. That will show up in crime data, but you'd be hard-pressed to convince me that it correlates with the murder rate. And if you wanted me to compile a report on crime data, I'd probably ignore it altogether (which is essentially what people are doing when they refer to "violent crime" states).

For a slightly more charged example, let's say property owners push a law against sleeping in public. If they succeed and police don't enforce it, are they "gaming" the metrics? What if most other locals actually oppose the law?

[1] https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-illegal-pigeon-vegas-20...

[bradleyjg]

If Chicago, San Francisco, and Minneapolis all jump off a bridge NYC should too?

[jakelazaroff]

Are you saying that we shouldn’t control for a coordinated national change in murder rate when evaluating the impact a mayor’s specific policies have had on their city?

[pandaman]

Anti-police policies are not exclusive to the NYC though. If you want to control you need to show that murders also rise in the cities that don't have the same policies. Chicago, SF, Minneapolis don't appear a sensible choice for a control group in this regard.

[bradleyjg]

I’d say the blame for the consequences of pro crime ideology should be shared by all mayors that hold it.

[jessaustin]

NYC is subject to the same national economic, demographic, and cultural trends. For example, recently there has been a respiratory pandemic that affected the entire nation.