[throwaway_2047]

I used to live in Hong Kong. In the past 2 year situation has been Orwellian. News outlet being shutdown, pro-democratic parties dismissed, charities disbanded, whole members of political party got arrested, among others. At least 1% of the population fled the city in the first half of 2021.

In a parallel universe, and completely unrelated note, my friends in China, thinks their country can finally stand-up against the west. They cannot be more proud of their country. There is also the sentiment that the West would not doing anything concrete against China

I can dig up figures and references if anyone interested

Edited with reference:

[1] Clam down on Apple Daily, the only pro-democratic (that I know of) news outlet in Hong Kong

[2] Directors of Apple Daily arrested

[3] 65,000 applications of BN(O) visa, the visa for HKers to move to the UK. HK population is around 7.5M

[4] Youtubers exodus, for fear of government prosecution in the name of the national security or for whatever reason.

[5] 230 Democrats quitting local council.

[6] There are around 479 local council in total. So about half of them quit

[7] People were arrested in the name of national security here and there. A charity, formed last year, providing inmate visiting service, will be dismissed. Only Chinese source available at the moment

[8] During the peak of mass migration in the 90s, 62,000 people per year moved away from HK. Compare with 65,000 moving to the UK in the first 6 months

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-apple-daily-will-clo...

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/hong-kong-poli...

[3] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/65-000-hongkongers-apply-...

[4] https://www.youtube.com/c/memehongkong https://www.youtube.com/c/bobsyouruncle1981 https://www.youtube.com/c/Gavinchiu001 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVjj_osiKAP_qTtJAr6IrvA https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCh_KRmXM4RiQFvOBBDpvC6Q

[5] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/230-elected-pro-democrats-q...

[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/District_councils_of_Hong_Kong

[7] https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=449783

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waves_of_mass_migrations_from_...

[moondistance]

Please share figures and references. This is fascinating and of great interest to many of us. Thanks!

[justicezyx]

> [1] Clam down on Apple Daily, the only pro-democratic (that I know of) news outlet in Hong Kong

Apple Daily (Chinese: 蘋果日報) was a tabloid-style newspaper published in Hong Kong from 1995 to 2021.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Daily

If apple daily is the only pro democracy, which is a tabloid style newspaper, the conclusion is that HK democracy is likely a very poor one.

If apple daily is not the only pro democracy news outlet, I think shutting it down is contributing to a healthy democracy.

> [2] Directors of Apple Daily arrested

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Media-Entertainment/Shares-...

It seems the market welcomes that...

It either means the market cares little about democracy, or Jimmy is not really the friend of democracy as himself proclaimed.

> [3] 65,000 applications of BN(O) visa, the visa for HKers to move to the UK. HK population is around 7.5M

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handover_of_Hong_Kong#Tide_of_...

Let's how bad this compares to the 1990s after Tiananmen square... I think it probably wont surpass that. Note the 1992 peak is 66000 actually leaving, your number is just applications.

> [4] Youtubers exodus, for fear of government prosecution in the name of the national security or for whatever reason.

Similar to the above.

> [5] 230 Democrats quitting local council.

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-57816972 They seem are disqualified on the new oath rule? Which says that if they do not take oath to be loyal to the HK government, they'll be disqualified. So they decide to resign first.

Well, I believe CCP is very happy that they gave up so easily...

> [7] People were arrested in the name of national security here and there. A charity, formed last year, providing inmate visiting service, will be dismissed. Only Chinese source available at the moment

Your link is about a non profit disbanded fearing of crackdown.

> [8] During the peak of mass migration in the 90s, 62,000 people per year moved away from HK. Compare with 65,000 moving to the UK in the first 6 months

I guess if HK economy were hurt enough because of this exodus, it helps to guide the democracy sentiment of the society.

[throwaway_2047]

Thank you so much for taking the time to read the news. It is heartwarming to me. I will respond to the best of my knowledge.

> If apple daily is the only pro democracy, which is a tabloid style newspaper, the conclusion is that HK democracy is likely a very poor one.

Hong Kong doesn't have true democracy. On surface it might follow the British system [0]. The chief executive, the equivalent of mayor, is elected by the election committee of 1,200 members [1]. Slightly over half of the legislative council, the equivalent of the parliament, is the "functional constituency", which means those members are appointed by selected member of selected industries [2]. Hong Kong has been pushing for universal suffrage every year. Every year, peaceful demonstration is seen on 1st of July to ask for reforming the election[3]

> It seems the market welcomes that...

It is more nuanced. Some are market manipulation. Some wants to support Jimmy Lai. There were people spreading rumours on lihkg.com, the hong kong reddit, that buying stock of apple daily can financially support the company. There are people thinking the company will soon be de-listed, which is more likely true, hence want a piece of history by getting a physical stock. Some want to make a profit by riding the market trend hence perpetuating the rising trend.

> your number is just applications.

You are right. Some factor to consider:

- the numbers I quoted is for the UK only. US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Taiwan are the other company choices

- There are around 300,000 Canadian in HK. They can leave anytime [4]. And there are many holders of other citizenship whom returned HK after the 90s migration, sensing that HK weren't as bad as imagined.

> They seem are disqualified on the new oath rule?

The new oath rule was imposed after the election if I remember correctly. And there is no governance over the execution of the rule. It's basically up to whoever in position thinks you violated the rule. No proof is needed.

> non profit disbanded fearing of crackdown.

I might have misused the term charity. Non-profit fearing crackdown is still wrong, right? It was a non-profit for visiting inmate, so they feel cared, after all

> it helps to guide the democracy sentiment of the society

People leaving the city are those either who care about democracy or who care about economy. So I hold opposite opinion. Time will tell.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_powers_in_Hong_K...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Committee_(Hong_Kong)

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Functional_constituency_(Hong_...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_1_July_marches

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadians_in_Hong_Kong

[justicezyx]

> People leaving the city are those either who care about democracy or who care about economy. So I hold opposite opinion. Time will tell.

I never really understand these pro-democracy people. On the one hand, they seem wholeheartedly believe in the noble ideology. On the other hand, they seem are so timid that their only reaction under concrete threat is fleeing away.

Did they forgot how the American Forefathers fight for their independence, freedom, and democracy?

Are they really this naive that CCP are going to hand over democracy to them?

As for HK economy, CCP can make Macau prosper, I see no chance HK economy can flop. Good luck with fleeing HK and demonstrate the "pro democracy"...

[3pt14159]

When Trump was elected China had no better time to finally act. A destabilized and distracted west and political cover for actions as responses to Trump's aggressive on China tone.

Even now, we're not out of the woods yet. The west is still dealing with the lingering effects of Trumpism and Covid has balance sheets and attentions. Consolidating power now while nobody in the world will really challenge them. The democrats can't survive a recession on top of the Afghanistan disaster and prolonged Covid. They're not going to really sanction China.

[dillondoyle]

I don't buy this. I think it would have been the WORST time for Xi to act or get aggressive.

Trump is legitimately unstable and so selfish as to try to use the military and provocations - even on US soil he wanted to deploy forces - to win or fulfill his deluded post election craziness.

Just today excerpts came out of Woodward's new book; one revelation is General Milley called up his counterpart in China, kind of roguely, in a Nixon esque attempt to say hey, this guy is freaking crazy let's use bureaucracy to try to maintain status quo and go around any dangerous orders.

[3pt14159]

I'm aware of the book and two things can be true at the same time. The clampdown in HK came at a time when Americans were least likely to lead a coordinated effort to punish it.

China has been way less cautious over the past four or five years, and I do not think Trump being in office is a coincidence.

[vladTheInhaler]

Let's not beat around the bush. Trump is not very smart, and not at all well-informed. In fact he actively removed anyone from his inner circle who showed signs of being either of those things. So I think China was able to move confidently in a lot of areas, because they knew Trump and his cabinet would fail to understand the significance of their actions. This includes erosion of democratic norms in Hong Kong - Trump doesn't understand or care about democratic values, and has in fact attacked them himself domestically, so that represented a huge opportunity for China.

At the same time, Trump is deeply insecure, and is attached to the idea of military power somehow reflecting his own masculinity. Look at his tweets in response to North Korea's provocations, for instance, and how he made them all about him personally. So I think China was careful not to take action that would cause Trump to feel slighted or emasculated and feel a need for direct military action.

So within that narrow area of military pride and perhaps domestic manufacturing, Trump represented a real threat of retaliation and escalation, but beyond that he was pretty much asleep at the wheel.

[mensetmanusman]

Trump was a symptom of a huge disruption due to globalization.

[rjzzleep]

If John Boltons book is to believed Trump was very much pro China behind the scenes, with a lot of senior officials like Pompeo and Bolton pushing for things such as free trade agreements with Taiwan in which Trump had no interest in. His family has a lot of business there after all. But who knows.

At least we know that China calls Trump Trump the nation(china) builder.

https://www.ibtimes.com/why-beijing-may-want-keep-trump-whit...