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by starfallg 1736 days ago
Middle income trap doesn't have much to do with global brands. It has to do with whether there is enough capacity to absorb excess labour when economic growth necessitates transition away from agriculture and manufacturing to service and information industries.

Export driven growth is also very risky as geopolitical issues (as we can see now with Huawei) can happen on a dime. In order to develop China up to western standards, the world needs to supply resources for a population well over all the western countries (EU+US+CANZUK+Asian Tigers) combined. All of the countries that have achieved had good relationships with their importing trading partners, China on the other hand is moving in the opposite direction due to political reasons.
1 comments
throwaway4good 1736 days ago
The point is it hasn’t happened and it doesn’t happen. Employment is high, internal consumption is growing, companies climb up the value chain etc.

Instead predicting that it is going to end abruptly tomorrow, the intellectual powers of commentators would be better spent on explaining why it continues and why it has continued for so long.

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starfallg 1736 days ago
> The point is it hasn’t happened and it doesn’t happen. Employment is high, internal consumption is growing, companies climb up the value chain etc.

All of which are beside the point. It is the type of jobs that are available and their relative value. Internal consumption needs to effect a shift in the economy towards services, which isn't happening. Off-shored high-tech manufacturing is moving away to more political acceptable countries.

>Instead predicting that it is going to end abruptly tomorrow, the intellectual powers of commentators would be better spent on explaining why it continues and why it has continued for so long.

Mainly because they created an unequal system with capital controls and ownership rules to siphon foreign capital and IP. This is supercharged by an hyper aggressive business environment and in general large appetite for risk, leading to sky-high asset prices, which is a concern for advanced economies, but much more of a concern for a developing one.

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