[roenxi]

We live in very exciting times. The question isn't "Is China's economy good?" or "Is China's economy bad?". The question is "How will it perform relative to Europe and America?".

The US's economic fundementals aren't great. I'm expecting to see US government spending be the majority of GDP in my lifetime. That sort of centralised planning doesn't bode well for the West.

[quincunx]

So I thought "gov't spending, majority of GDP" was preposterous, but then I looked at the graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_Uni...

Looks like it already blipped the 50% mark in WW2 and is quite close now. Seems to (visually) be leveling though.

[pjc50]

Very important question: are pensions counted as "spending" in the breakout of federal/local/state spending? Because if they are then the number will inevitably go up as life expectancy beyond pension age increases.

I'm slightly surprised to see that the War On Terror didn't register as a visible discontinuity on the graph, even as a smaller one compared to WW2. I suppose the money would have been spent on the military anyway.

[imtringued]

What is preposterous about it? If anything we can probably guess that the 40s to 80s were so nice because government spending went up. The 2008 blip was just the bank bailout.

It looks like government spending has stabilized 40 years ago. Considering how much the economy got "worse" from the perspective of the average because China got more powerful since 2000 it's actually strange how the numbers remained stable.

[quincunx]

What is preposterous about it?

You mean why I felt it was preposterous? Well allow me to demonstrate my naivety...

I would have expected 50% to be "socialist Europe" type spending, and indeed, a bit of googling reveals France is at about 60% of GDP right now, Germany at about 50%, Netherlands at 47%... That 60% of all income is determined by the policies and decision making of politicians, apparatchiks and bureaucrats is, I find, shockingly close to a planned economy.

So why preposterous? Because the US, on so many fronts, positions itself in contrast to Europe - free market ideology, small government rhetoric, fiscally conservative. Anyway, obviously, I was wrong.

[pjc50]

It's pensions. On both sides of the Atlantic. https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/pensions_spending

The difference in military spending (which might otherwise be a likely suspect) is more like 3.5%ish (US) to 1-2%ish (Europe)

[temp8964]

“ the US, on so many fronts, positions itself in contrast to Europe - free market ideology, small government rhetoric, fiscally conservative.”

No. Not the whole US. This idea is not in majority. Some people do think so, but they don’t get to control the whole country.

[powerapple]

Economy can evolve, what we consider as fundamentals can change, people would think it is crazy to have a currency not backed up by gold previously has worked, it is time printing money becomes normal, it is just numbers anyway. Unless there is an alternative, the economy will go forward as it is. As long as everyone is buying into this game, the game can continue forever.

[dmix]

Why does every single conversation about China have to devolve into a contest with America? This is usually a way to distract from problems in China with whataboutisms. The soviets did this obsessively too the minute anyone critiqued them.

It is in fact possible to evaluate a countries economy in isolation as well as comparatively globally … and America (and the rare EU anecdote) is not the only economy to compare to.

America’s issues don’t alleviate other country’s issues. The Chinese economy, population, and political/legal system are often very different so direct comparisons are usually only partially valuable.

[OneTimePetes]

All ex-empires (Iran, Turkey, Great-Britain, France, Spain, China) when talking about a topic compare themselves with the current rooster on the heap.

[dmix]

Every time there’s a China article on HN at least half the comments are about America, or more. Why can’t we just talk about the issues China is having?

Wanting to compare them isn’t the problem here by itself. It’s how every conversation gets derailed with “but America does x”. They both have their own problems.