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by belter 1740 days ago
Cases in Portugal are staying stable neither growing or diminishing. Looking at the curve for deaths there seems to be no correlation between deaths and the vaccination program.

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2021-09-10-Covid-19.-O-oitav...

1 comments

I can't even take your comment seriously.
Look at the active cases graph starting at 8 Aug and the line to latest 10 of Sep. In approximately 45,000 cases there is a variation of -/+ 2000 is that not basically a straight line?

Also what I mean by there is no correlation between deaths and the vaccination program, and there, I could have been a bit clear in my explanation, is the following:

Again looking at the active cases diagram between 3 of March and 15 of April you get a massive peak and a massive drop. That is the expected behavior of mathematical models, and a runways virus propagating to several hosts. The vaccination program as seen in the graph here: "A que ritmo estamos a vacinar?" https://www.publico.pt/interactivo/vacina-covid-19

started in 28 Dec linear grow, a peak 11 July where more people on holidays have the time do take the vaccine and continues in for with a large intensity of 60,000 this 8 Sept.

So I am calling attention to very quick and strong record of active cases seen within 2 to 3 months in the active cases diagram versus the gradual vaccination program.

>Look at the active cases graph starting at 8 Aug and the line to latest 10 of Sep. In approximately 45,000 cases there is a variation of -/+ 2000 is that not basically a straight line?

Look at the daily active cases, does it look like a straight line?

>So I am calling attention to very quick and strong record of active cases seen within 2 to 3 months in the active cases diagram versus the gradual vaccination program.

Why do you dismiss the number of active cases when you're talking about deaths? Isn't the fact that we have more than double the active cases an indicator that less infected people are dying?

Because what you're doing is simply assuming the virus mortality rate remained constant, and all the extra cases are just cases that weren't identified in the past, and you have nothing to back this claim.

Look at case fatality rate in Portugal:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

It dropped off a cliff from 2.9% at its highest to about 0.5% today.

I used the same graph as you but superimposed India ( 13% vaccinations only) pandemic behavior is a copy slight shifted in time 2-3 months:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

Why? The graph under "Total de mortes" shows that the number of fatalities is higher right now than last year (when no one was vaccinated).

We don't know yet if the clearly seasonal winter outbreak will be the same as last year (or worse).

First the graph of newly daily cases is trending downward since July, why did the he say they are not diminishing? If you compare to last year they were trending upward.

If this is going to keep going down, sideways, or up we have no idea.

About the "Total de Mortes", today you have more then double the amount of active cases, why are you ignoring that?

>We don't know yet if the clearly seasonal winter outbreak will be the same as last year (or worse).

Yes, but to say vaccines aren't doing anything it's absurd.

I was talking about the last few weeks. That is the almost straight line you see in the graph. You know what the curve looks like, and almost a copy? The curve in India one the countries with the smallest percentage of vacinnated people:

Have a look (13% vaccinated...):

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/india-covid-c...