[kthxb]

Wikipedia's "Timeline of the far Future" [0] gives a 95% chance for hunans to be extinct in 10k years.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

[erredois]

By one calculation, other person calculated 7.8 mil years for 95% of extinction mentioned on the same page.

[lostmsu]

That's not about civilization though.