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by dirtyid
1738 days ago
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JP/TW had "security" dialogue that basically amounted to JP begging Taiwan for semi fabs. JP isn't going to do shit because like US they're even less capable of defending TW. JP actions has been all rhetoric. It means nothing until they commit to credible but politically expensive actions. Some notional missile force increase on Ryukyu is theatre when what's needed is massive mobilization of main islands (and put every JP civilian in harms way) outside of Okinawa as prescribed in AGILE. It's not going to happen, they can't even commit to land based Aegis Ashore ABM to save themselves from NK nukes. >One does not. PRC has blue water Navy that operates up to ME and has been for years. It's also signifantly larger and more capable than Japans. I suspect you need to update understanding from old Zeihan powerpoints. With respect to US, PRC has 30 CEP ICBMs which means USNavy vessels become scrap the second they pull into port. Even nuclear carriers can't stay at sea forever, nevermind their sustainment / oilers / resupply ships will be long gone. US carrier groups will likely be one-time deployment assets. This is roughly reality now, and and even more dire in the coming years. US can sink every PLAN ship on the waters and PRC can sink every USN ship in port. Or destroy entire east Asian fab supply chain, setting back US industry/tech decades. Or bait US security commitments in Korea / Japan which compels US to send assets within 1st island chain where they are weakest, negating point of blockade outside of 1st island chain. The wank over blockading PRC via Malacca / SLOC overlooks the fact that at minimum PRC can force US to sign a hegemony suicide pact. PRC can make US lose everything even in defeat. And is willing to over TW. |
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I don’t see a need to rebut your false claims and would encourage folks to read your comment history.