[Koiwai]

A data backed assumption is still better than a wild guess.

The sun will rise tomorrow, this is a prediction of the future, I'd say it will turn out to be pretty accurate.

[AussieWog93]

When it comes to predicting something like the impact of a new technology or the success of a startup, I'd argue it's worse.

At least a wild guess doesn't pretend to be anything more than hope and speculation.