[whatshisface]

That's not a retort, that's a question. "Do the odds of getting the virus attenuate its expectation value enough to make it equal to the expectation value of the vaccine?"

The answer to the question is related to the question of how many people are going to get this thing before it stops spreading. From what I've heard we're looking at 70-80% based on herd immunity estimations, which is not a lot of risk attenuation on the virus side. If someone wants to chime in with a better-justified estimate, I'd appreciate that.

[nradov]

Those herd immunity level estimates were based on R0 estimates for earlier variants. The Delta variant is so contagious that there will be no significant herd immunity effect to protect unvaccinated people. Almost all of us will eventually be exposed no matter what we do, but fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

[SkyMarshal]

True, and also keep in mind that expectation value incorporates not just relative odds of occurrence, but relative harm as well.

The immediate harm of getting the vaccine is much lower than the immediate harm of contracting the virus, and furthermore the vaccine reduces both the odds and harm of the virus.

All that is factored into the comparative E(V) too.

[rory]

No, it's not a question, because vaccine-hesitant people generally aren't doing the math like you are. They're just saying "<100 is better than 100, so I'll go with the option that might be fine."