[reginold]

One area to question with your assumption is that it's tens of thousands of dollars.

Of course this is true today. But what if an ultralight EV in 2030 only costs $1,000? How does that change your assumptions about market behavior then?

[megablast]

It already exists, it’s called a scooter.

[xxs]

>But what if an ultralight EV in 2030 only costs $1,000

What if, we can have faster than light travel. We can't realistically have ultralight anything, unless it's on rails.

[reginold]

Your point seems to be that a $1k ultralight EV that 90% of people use to get around is impossible?

To me it seems inevitable. A self driving AI so no accidents, then a minimal frame to keep the wind off, an chair to sit on, and a few tires. And the batteries are swapped as a service/variable cost like gas is today. Get where you need at 60 mph.

[xxs]

The AI = no accidents: I can see it on rails and zero chance in the next 20y to have any AI that can drive in winter conditions, or even fog.

There is no way to build any 'minimal' frame for $1k with any material that's remotely lightweight. Heck, even the current battery technology is sort of low energy density. You get around 220Wh per kg (or 0.8MJ vs gasoline's 46MJ). A hundred kg would be 22kWh. With a lightweight body - 400kg (~900lbs) [price not withstanding], highly aerodynamic model on good asphalt - I'd say 250km (155miles in freedom units) is realistic - but then you need cooling system to charge them, unless you consider they can be hot-swapped (or willing to wait longer).

What you suggest is proper futuristic stuff taken from a sci-fi flick, none of it would happen anytime soon.

[flyinglizard]

It is indeed impossible. There’s not a scooter which costs $1k (you’d be hard pressed to find a good mountain bike for that amount).

[reginold]

Here's a $930 EV on Alibaba, reviewed by Jalopnik. Seats 4:

https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-the-worlds-cheapest-electric...

[flyinglizard]

That isn’t going to pass any sort of western world safety regulation to go on roads.

[reginold]

You said it's impossible, I showed it's possible, and then now you say as-is it's not going to pass regulation in certain countries. Okay.

[yazaddaruvala]

And in the year 1990 you couldn’t buy a supercomputer that fit in your pocket for $1000 either. Today everyone has one.

What exactly makes this case different?

[xxs]

Dennard scaling/Moore's law. We pretty knew back then it'd happen. Most of the progress has been iterative but the basic process/lithography is still very similar. There is no indication or massive breakthrough in material science that would allow anything similar to what we have been seeing in the electronics development for the past 50 years.

[yazaddaruvala]

> There is no indication or massive breakthrough in material science that would allow anything similar

Then you may not be paying attention. Battery costs have been dropping exponentially and we are only starting to really invest capital and scale production. Meanwhile: 1. Solid state batteries, 2. 3D printed metal, 3. Algorithmically optimized design.

Before 2018 battery production was basically negligible. We have only truly started to scale our need for storage in 2018.

Today 3D printed metal is in its infancy, but has truly significant potential. I’m very excited to see how companies like Relativity Space, etc mature this tech and how it will disrupt current manufacturing. Even just giga molding is disruptive, let alone printing which will use significantly less metal and significantly reduce capital investment for manufacturing (i.e. something like AWS for manufacturing).

[flyinglizard]

Because progress is mostly done on value and not absolute costs. An IBM XT PC cost $5k in present day dollars back in 1985. Computers today are exponentially better but maintain a modest linear price adjustment.

Going back to your post verbatim, super computers today still cost hundreds of millions and need an entire building; the definition of what makes a computer “super” is what evolved, not their cost or other burdens.

[Ekaros]

You can find pretty cheap remote controlled electric cars today. Even for less than 50$... Though size might be somewhat issue. But hey aren't those in pocket also lot smaller?

[xxs]

I can't think of any half-decent bike that would cost that much, even with a steel frame.

[flyinglizard]

Are we talking mountain bikes? Because you certainly aren’t getting a full suspension for $1k. The cheapest Specialized hard tail MTB is about $800.

[xxs]

Yes, exactly what I said - I can't think of a half-decent bike that would cost $1k, they are way over that.

[reginold]

Here's a $930 EV on Alibaba, reviewed by Jalopnik. Seats 4:

https://jalopnik.com/heres-what-the-worlds-cheapest-electric...