[chipotle_coyote]

> Most cars are replaced because the lease was up on the old one.

From a bit of cursory research just now, only a quarter to a third of new cars in the last few years in the US have been leased rather than purchased, so I'm pretty sure this is not true. (Of the folks I know who've leased cars in the past, about half of them actually bought out their lease at the end, too, although obviously that's anecdotal.)

I think the rest of your comment's on point, I just think you're underestimating how many people treat cars closer to the way you apparently do. :) While this is again an anecdote, when I traded in a Mazda 3 after eight years, I was surprised at how many friends and acquaintances I talked to -- including other folks right here in Silicon Valley, making more money than I am to boot -- reacted to that as "only eight years?"

[hindsightbias]

> quarter to a third of new cars

Someone who has built a company with complicated long logistical tails, deep R&D, high fashion and is looking for a recurring growth industry might think of a way to do that with cars.

$500/month from 10M drivers in the US would add at least another $1T to the APPL valuation.