[ZephyrBlu]

> A lunchtime conversation with my coworkers showed that most put more faith in their own instincts with picking stocks than in index or mirror funds (something that evidence shows is very unlikely, but people like to believe)

Very unlikely in what circumstances? E.g. 5 year period, 20 year period, holding the same stocks the entire time, etc.

[allendoerfer]

Very unlikely in all your examples, exceedingly unlikely the longer the game is played.