[arcticbull]

> I suspect the stock market surge over the last year is mostly fake inflation gains.

It's not really possible to make 100% gains out of 5% inflation. Not every price increase is inflation!

The increase in the price of stocks isn't really inflation (except with respect to CPI) because 1 share of AAPL buys you far more CPI goods than 1 share of AAPL bought you 2 years ago. For it to be "inflation" and "entirely illusory" 1 AAPL share, while priced at $150 would have to only buy you as much a 1 AAPL share 2 years ago at $50.

That makes the increase in asset prices "ROI" not inflation.

What you're seeing is a massive increase in personal savings among Americans, recently at near all-time highs. [1] Combined with FINRA margin debt at near all-time highs due to the low-cost and broader availability of loans. [2] That's my theory anyways.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

[2] https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/08/1...

[WalterBright]

Do you really believe that inflation is only 5%? I don't. I see big price increases across the board.

BTW, what the shares of one company does means nothing in this discussion. What the S&P 500 does means something.

[arcticbull]

(1) well I don’t know what to tell you haha, inflation calculations are public. You can’t just say without citation that ehhh I feel like it’s not though shrug - this is actually something you can calculate! Please, do it, or cite some sources - ideally credible ones! You can’t just make giant claims like that without evidence. Of course certain contributors will be higher than the average weighting - like housing - but that’s how averages work.

(2) ok the same exact thing applies to SPY shares and doubly so when you include dividends. I mean AAPL is 7% of the S&P500 and 12% of the NASDAQ and so is fairly representative but your point is well taken.