[ArnoVW]

Counter point: beginning of 2021, for weeks I was wondering why the markets were not reacting to Covid.

Only when travel restrictions were introduced, and only when they were introduced to the US, the market started taking notice.

Does the market extrapolate future earnings and macro economic trends, sure. Do some people have secrete insights beyond that? Sure. But I'd say the market as a whole is pretty stupid and reactive.

[arthurcolle]

Agreed, I was trading VIX futures calls and /ES puts around that time and was equally mystified that markets were as frothy as ever. It was definitely a very wild time to be speculating.