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by PaulHoule
1749 days ago
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I said it. AMZN has a flywheel. That flywheel is going to keep turning despite what anyone does. Brick and motor stores have a tendency to fixate on a profile of an imaginary consumer that is bizzare to say the least. The Staples shopper loves junk hardware from VTech (especially if it only lasts three weeks) and wouldn't even think of buying quality Plantronics hardware. Staples shoppers want a choice of 20 different kinds of glossy inkjet paper and would never buy a coated photo/presentation matte (hint: they are the same thing, art reproductions look great on photo matte) What about the imaginary Target shopper who an insatiable appetite for chi-chi frozen foods, graphic T-shirt, and shoes and bras that don't fit? Amazon avoided those fates and also the fate of being an advertising-dependent business that started to believe the stories it tells. (Dan Boorstein, in 1962, said that public relations experts didn't fall for the images they make, but we've had a long time for the culture to degrade. I'm certain that "ad prices are too damn high" because they are bid up by people who get the jollies from hearing their name on the radio.) |
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But I also believe in butterfly effect, the levers a CEO holds on a company have 1000X multiplier effect than a normal employee, and any change of leader means an Amazon with a market cap of 3T vs 3B. Thats is not to say a 3B company doesn't have a flywheel and won't make consistent profit. I look at the likes of eBay, Newegg all were non B&M and still couldn't grow to anywhere near the size.
In the end, it could have been Joe Pizza that was at the helm of Amazon that succeeded to 3T market cap, same argument can be made that replacing Joe Pizza wouldn't have lead to the similar result. All the pieces (luck, personalities, vision, skills etc...), of the puzzle have to match just right for such a large scale success.