| >A symptom with a 1 in 100 000 occurrences would result in about 800 cases in my country. Arranged according to demographics, divided by the number of phlebologists in these areas, and the baseline prevalence of these symptoms you can start to make an informed guess as to what amount is "normal". But things aren’t normal. Travel patterns have completely changed due to covid, so less or more people might be visiting a clinic than previously. People have been far more sedentary compared to previous years, a key risk factor for VTE, which could increase individual risk by as much as 30%. Covid itself causes VTE, so people with diagnosed and undiagnosed earlier cases of covid would increase the numbers. > You're overly confident for an assertion that relies on your belief that someone with decades of medical experience would be ignorant of these basic statistical pitfalls. Even in well thought out, carefully conducted studies, biases and confounding factors can cause serious issues. These aren’t “basic statistical pitfalls”. These are things that even the smartest people cannot account for without conducting an actual study with actual controls and randomization, actual statistical analysis, actual identification of confounding factors, actual reanalysis accounting for those, and actual peer review to make sure there were not issues you did not think of. I’m confident because I know that we do medical studies because we know that even the smartest people cannot just eyeball changes in incidence rates and cannot know which of many factors is likely causing the change. Even experts have human biases and we require the structure and rigor of studies to help mitigate them. I’m not confident that I am more knowledgeable than a doctor, I’m confident that the people much smarter than me developed evidence based medicine because they understood that no one is above bias, even your doctor. >I don't know if we use VAERS at all being in Europe. For Germany, you can report possible side effects here [1] which goes to the Bundesinstitut für Arzneimittel und Medizinprodukte (Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices) and The Paul-Ehrlich-Institut (Federal Institute for Vaccines and Biomedicines). If I was incorrect and you are in another European country, you can find your reporting agency from the EU website here [2]. [1] https://nebenwirkungen.bund.de/nw/EN/home/home_node.html [2] https://www.hma.eu/nationalcontacts_hum.html |