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by orbifold
1759 days ago
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I'm honestly not sure, maybe we are really just talking past each other. If there are no unvaccinated people left the relative risk reduction would be zero, that just follows from the definition. The absolute number of hospitalisations would still be meaningful. In the perfect world that everyone was vaccinated you would still see an age dependent decrease of effectiveness over time and relative to alpha. The real data from Israel seems to show that two vaccine doses in a very compliant population are not enough to effectively prevent the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths to rise without additional other measures (boosters, masks, etc.). |
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What I'm arguing is that the argument as presented in this thread cannot support this conclusion since they only focus on the vaccinated/non vaccinated ratio of hospitalised cases, which by definition goes up as more people get vaccinated. The effect is also compounded by a skewed distribution in favour of older people "getting severely sick" (and thus hospitalized) versus the general lower "getting sick" bar set to measure vaccine effectiveness.
This is a bit counterintuitive and makes for an easy topic for journalists to create a sensationalistic piece.
Unfortunately that's how most articles of the subject that I see cited look like. Perhaps there are better articles that make a stronger case, with all the relevant number (such as hospitalizations / infected people in general population). Can you share one if you know about it?