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The reason bike lanes do not have demand induction effects is because there is inherently low demand. A majority of the population cannot use bicycles for long trips, and even those who can cannot use them for all trips. Bike lanes are ableist and classist. Only healthy citizens with an excess of time and energy are able to use them for trips. The elderly, children, those with heart conditions, asthma, or many other health conditions, and anyone needing to transport anything heavier than their own body cannot use the lane. In most cities this represents a minority of the population. Creating exclusionary space for bicycles is the opposite of progressive policy and efficient urban design. |
Most people can use an electric bike (this checks the energy part) and with electrical cargo bikes can transport a lot without a lot of physical exertion.
And, last but not least, for those who truly can't use anything bike-like the fan-favorite netherlands allows the use Canta, very small microcars, on bike lanes. These are way cheaper than cars and need less skills to drive, so elderly can drive them as well.
Way better than requiring everyone to drive couple tons worth tens of thousands of dollars after absolving an expensive and time consuming course on how to use them without injuring anybody or worse.
PS. I don't know many children that can drive a lot on roads without a bicycle. That's a very weird example. I don't think many people advocate removing sidewalks in favor of bike lanes.