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by qwerty456127
1765 days ago
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> you could go one more cycle of exponential growth, doubling every n weeks/days I'm not sure a big percent- of people is prone to hard covid. I tend to believe the majority of people has already went through it asymptomatically/easily and so will the majority of those who still hasn't. Exponential growth in positive tests doesn't imply infinite (limited only by the size of the population itself) exponential growth of severe cases or deaths. |
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Correct!
but when in the growth phase we can't know when it will stop. We have a fixed[1] upper bound on the number of people we can deal with at one go. so when we see we are getting close, we have to take drastic action.
We know that testing in the uk is a proxy for actual infection, it tends to favour symptomatic as its "self selecting". The ONS survey is more accurate but has a significant lag.
I really hope that you are correct about asymptomatic. but we can't be sure, yet.