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by thex10 1759 days ago
Why does reduction in death/hospitalization/severe illness keep being interpreted as "no gain" by the skeptics?
2 comments

In the context of their statement, if natural immunity is as good as vaccination, then there is no gain from vaccination.
Also, we do not yet have a good idea about the real world levels of reduction in "death/hospitalization/severe illness". Currently, in the United States, known deaths from Covid19 among people stands at "eight point seven per million fully vaccinated" (aka, 8.7/million) and has been steadily increasing since April[1,2].

Hospitalizations from Covid19 among the fully vaccinated stands at "thirty six per million fully vaccinated" and steadily increasing.

Since both outcomes come at the end of a process (get vaccinated -> get exposed to the virus -> get an infection -> require a hospital visit -> die from illness), there is naturally at least five or weeks lags between someone completing the full vaccination schedule and the hospitalization/death outcome occurring.

Given that about half the full vaccinations in the U.S. happened since April and given that the consensus seems to be that vaccine conferred protection lasts about 6-8 months, I would not expect the "deaths from Covid19 per million fully vaccinated against Covid19" to stabilize until October.

In the mean time, the unvaccinated will either have to submit or driven into the shadows with the current policies. Pretty soon, it will be a miracle to find anyone whose natural immune response without vaccination can be measured/tested at all.

[1]: Current version: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...

[2]: Snapshots since April: https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/hea...