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by HWR_14 1761 days ago
The 39% is against getting an infection, and I believe that includes the ability to transmit the infection on. It definitely is crucial that Re (R0 modified by measures like vaccines and masks) be kept below 1 if at all possible.

The preventing severe illness is still holding pretty firm, but not as strong as against other variants. Still a very good chance. And preventing hospitalizations is even stronger.
1 comments
j_walter 1761 days ago
I haven't seen any good information on transmission. My gut feeling is that less symptoms == less transmissibility, but I have no data to back that up.

One study has put the delta R0 around the same as Measles...which is 3x original COVID, but still less than Chicken Pox.

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breadzeppelin__ 1761 days ago
> less symptoms == less transmissibility

doesn't really hold up when asymptomatic spread (no symptoms at all) has been one of the main concerns for the entire pandemic

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j_walter 1761 days ago
Sure, but everything also said its spread through the air...no coughing == less droplets. The spread concern would be if people aren't taking the same precautions because they aren't showing symptoms, but if still wearing masks or social distancing then the transmission should be less.

That being said most people aren't taking precautions any more because of this...I've seen people directly exposed for up to 2 days to someone with COVID w/ symptoms who then gets an immediate negative test and goes on with their life and not wearing masks in public/work. No amount of yelling or shaming does any good when people are oblivious to their own self destructive behavior.

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wbsss4412 1761 days ago
It’s important to distinguish between asymptomatic infection and presymptomatic infection. The biggest problem with COVID-19 compared to previous forms of SARS viruses is its ability to spread before the onset of symptoms, which is different from someone displaying no symptoms at all from infection.

I’m not completely sure how infectious an asymptomatic infection is, but i just wanted to note a lot of the concern has actually been about presymptomatic infection.

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HWR_14 1760 days ago
Both asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission are possible. [1] And there has been a lot of published concern about both.

[1] https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article

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HWR_14 1761 days ago
> One study has put the delta R0 around the same as Measles...which is 3x original COVID, but still less than Chicken Pox.

I think you swapped Chicken Pox and Measles in your example, as the delta R0 seems similar to Chicken Pox and Chicken Pox has a lower R0 than Measles.

Chicken Pox, which, pre-vaccine, was considered an infection everyone would get.

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j_walter 1761 days ago
Thats very possible...I was going off information my significant other mentioned to me yesterday that she heard on the news. Hearsay of hearsay...so my bad...
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HWR_14 1760 days ago
Hey, that's pretty good information coherence for that long a game of telephone.

(Or wikipedia is wrong about R0 values for various diseases, including the delta variant)

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