[axiolite]

> conversations usually start with claims that are hard to believe, and completely unsubstantiated. Like Occam's Razor points in the complete opposite direction. Requests for evidence to back the claim up are usually deflected

In public, you just have to put a stake in the ground as delicately as you can. Something like: "All our research showed that A is the best way to go. We have not seen this data that B is better, so we continue to recommend A." At least then baseless assertions aren't standing entirely unchallenged.

Privately, you may be able to gently escalate the issue... Reminding Mr X's boss or another interested party that you never received the information Mr X promised, and hint at your doubts of the veracity of Mr X's claims.

> it's then applied in a non-sequitur argument of "unsubstantiated claim A, so we should do B" where there's no logical reasoning that A should lead to B.

Any chance Mr X is very familiar and comfortable with "B", and much less with "A"? I have seen this kind of behavior with some people, who don't want to put in the effort to learn something new, or are deathly afraid looking incompetent. The result can be an extremely unpleasant personality.

[afarrell]

> never received the information that Mr X promised

If you re-read the above, you’ll notice that Mr X never promised to have the data. He instead said he lacked the data.

One reason a person can end up losing credibility and making lots of excuses is that they are overcommitted. “I do not have time” might sound like an excuse, but it is genuinely possible to work 80-hour weeks on 5 hours of sleep and still be unable to complete ones daily task list or even to remember it.

Solving this requires that they learn to say no and to underpromise so they can eventually have time to overdeliver. This is awfully hard if their “no” to tasks like data collection is reinterpreted as a promise.

[axiolite]

> you’ll notice that Mr X never promised to have the data. He instead said he lacked the data.

I don't know what the actual situation was, but what the parent typed seemed to indicate Mr X was implying he could provide his data later (but based on past experience, never will):

> "I don't have the data right now" — and it will never be provided

I'm all for people working a reasonable number of hours and getting plenty of sleep. But if you are steering major decisions, you need to be able to substantiate up your reasoning. Being overworked is not going to make your judgment better so everyone acting on your questionable directions without confirming data is made all the more risky.

I hope your own situation has worked out.

[afarrell]

I changed teams and went on a meditation retreat. Things are much better.

Your larger point is correct up until the point where the decision is “I, Mr. X am not going to take on that additional work.” Until Mr. X exercises the autonomy to say “no”, he will always be overwhelmed and struggle to think and speak clearly. Until others trust him when he claims something is hard and are willing to take no for an answer, their distrust will make him untrustworthy.

It is a vicious cycle.

[Gravityloss]

If somebody's overworked, then their boss is not doing their job well and should be complained to.