You definitely have that right, but at this point the choice isn't vaccine vs no vaccine, it is vaccine vs getting covid. It is much more contagious than it was last year.
Your logic gate is faulty; it sounds like you are concluding that you will definitely get covid if you are not vaccinated, but that still depends on a number of things; people can get deliveries and work out of their home and never get it. It is also demonstrably incorrect that the vaccine is an amulet of proof against covid.
Ditto. When lockdown cease the contagion will spread much more widely. Everyone will be exposed to some of it. What matters are fewer critical conditions and less spread from vaccinated.