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by api 1771 days ago
I've wondered if we are in a regime today where interest rates simply can't go up. I can't imagine a scenario where they can go up more than a point or two without blood in the streets... possibly literally.
2 comments

Even minor changes to inflation can deflate asset bubbles without blood in the streets. 2% inflation might make your existing how less valuable for a few years but it’s also rapidly making your mortgage payments more affordable. The real issue is this sets up golden handcuffs where buying an equally valuable house elsewhere would be a huge financial hit for much longer.
Interest rates must go down when inflation is low. If you insist on high interest rates you will also need higher inflation to justify them. Think about it this way. Interest raises the cost of borrowing, it makes reproducible assets more expensive. Over the long term you see cost push inflation. If interest rates can't be passed onto consumers then the borrower will default. That's not a good thing.