[lotsofpulp]

> Vehicle assumptions: 200 000 km lifetime mileage

I was under the impression decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km these days, and can easily last 15+ years.

Have electric vehicles even been in use long enough to have sufficient data to compare?

[caf]

If we take as given that "decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km", then after accounting for both vehicles that are less than decent quality, and vehicles destroyed due to accident, malicious damage or poor maintenance long before they reach that figure, then a fleet average of 200,000 km doesn't seem out of the question.

[lotsofpulp]

The same factors would seem to apply to EVs (except perhaps poor maintenance, but I am not knowledgeable enough about EVs to be sure), so for the purposes of comparison, I figured apples to apples would be comparing expected lifetimes of both assuming they are not abused or neglected.

[caf]

It seems to me that they are using an expected lifetime (in the "expected value" sense) of 200,000 km for both types of vehicles.

If those factors apply equally and dominate the reasons vehicles reach EOL, then the expected lifetime not varying significantly between the vehicle types looks like a reasonable assumption.

Using the real expected lifetime taking into account the circumstances that tend to render a vehicle permanently unserviceable in the real world looks like the correct approach to determine how manufacturing costs are amortised over the vehicle lifetime.

[ghaff]

"Easily"

At least for a snowy area, those numbers are probably on the high side for reliable transportation but not 2x on the high side.

Presumably, an EV would at least need a battery replacement well before that point.

[lotsofpulp]

I presume an EV would rust the same as an ICE due to road salt/ice melt.

[istjohn]

Electric vehicles are far simpler mechanically, so I expect they will last much longer.

[metalliqaz]

only if they have been built to do so.

the same busted (and hard to repair) body parts will occur in both. Think AC, window motors, lamps and switches, etc.

plus, none of the manufacturers seem to be investing in easily replaceable batteries. They'd rather you buy a new car. May as well right? the batt replacement is 60% of the cost!