[ericmay]

Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words.

Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale. It's a platform.

Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars.

I see right around 0% chance for Cruze and others. They'll never figure it out. Chinese companies might though.

I think we'll see Tesla, some emerging Chinese automaker contenders, lots of current brands with smart features, and technology like Comma.ai. The future isn't just "does a car have AI?", it's the combination of the hardware of the car, battery management, routing, and platform.

Still curious about what Apple intends to do here.

[deegles]

Well, I think Tesla is developing FSD recklessly and their accidents will set back the entire industry for years. It’s not about “figuring it out,” real self driving under all conditions a human can handle is decades away still.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/tesla-is-now-beta-testi...

[mwint]

My pet theory is that Apple won’t produce a car; rather, they’ll produce a car cockpit. A kit of standard, high quality parts, comprising everything a driver touches. So Ford would make a car, Apple would make the screen, steering wheel, mirrors, etc. Might be a trim level or package on existing car models.

Every time I drive an unfamiliar car, I see so much opportunity for an Apple-like company to fix the UX of infotainment and quality feel of volume dials, etc.

This might be the way everyone else can catch up to Tesla’s UX. Yes, Tesla has issues, but their dang touchscreen doesn’t have a half second input delay.

[nhumrich]

The biggest problem with this theory is that it is so opposite of how apple does things. Apple always controls the entire stack.

[mwint]

Agree, but they've also done things like CarPlay. They obviously saw a problem to solve there; I think it wouldn't be hard at all to see them produce first-party CarPlay hardware.

[hiptobecubic]

Waymo is the spun out version of the Google self-driving car project.

Tesla is probably the only "famous" autonomy company that is not considered a serious contender, including by people sitting in them.

[shapefrog]

> Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words.

I expect this to happen in reverse. Google will buy up some more startups in the space then eventually a traditional car maker.

[ericmay]

Margins are too low. They'll sell the software and equipment as add-ons before they do that.

[shapefrog]

I was mentally living in the world where google didnt sell motorola after 2 years.

I can see your point and agree.

[ericmay]

Cheers!

[joey_bob]

Can you explain your reasoning and or insight for these conclusions? Personally I see Comma.ai as more likely to "never figure it out" than Cruise and others, but I lack special insight.