[da_big_ghey]

No, you make words in my mouth. We are reasonably sure of all three first items you have listed. I only make the contention that I have not yet seen evidence of this specific event. Most information I have heard suggest largest impact some years in the future. I say nothing about "bury our heads in the sand".

[_y5hn]

Climate reports and studies are regarded as conservative. IPCC reports are for example aggregate meta-studies, and those again not granular enough to detail weather. So it may be extremes are coming this decade and feedback effects (heatwaves, fires, floods, albedo change, ocean warming and acidification) also triggering this decade. It won't be one effect, and it'll take time worsening, but could happen faster than anticipated and all at once, on the timescale of decades.

It would be foolish to expect correct scientific predictions and consensus in all details before it happens.

[vorpalhex]

> you make words in my mouth

The idiom is "putting words in my mouth". https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/putting+words+in+my+mou...

[jshen]

What evidence would you expect to see for this specific event?